Tuesday, 2 February 2016
The death of the Conservative Party
It seems we bloggers will have our work cut out for the next few days. Thankfully we do not have much of an uphill battle on our hands to demonstrate just how weak Mr Cameron's bogus reforms are. EUreferendum.com has already done a decent demolition job on the technical aspects. What follows is the political demolition.
What we are about to see is a festival of all that is loathsome about our political class. It should be most instructive. Stronger In, for reasons that escape me entirely, is retweeting Chuka Umunna, saying that "The EU deal is one the left can support". You couldn't actually pick a more potent personification of the Wesminster bubble. This empty husk of a man possesses zero expertise yet presumes to tell us that this Tory charade is one befitting left wing thought. What are they smoking?
But it actually takes a Tory MP to top this magnificent idiocy, with Damian Collins tweeting that the "UK is now effectively an 'associate member' of the EU. It has been a deal worth fighting for". And there we have the two extremes of europhile. The profoundly ignorant and the utterly cynical. These people are intellectually, morally and spiritually corrupt.
It's astonishing. We see a uniform closing of ranks from all of the major parties to hold this lie aloft and call it EU reform. All those who would and should be implacably opposed to David Cameron are now suddenly converts to his political ability - with such brazen hubris in assuming we won't notice. But actually, the ultimate in cynicism and contempt comes not from the tribal sycophants but our own Prime Minister.
Cameron is gaming the system. He got away with his phantom veto stunt, knowing that the media would swallow what they were told, having zero ability to report on EU matters. Given how inept the media have been to date, that's not a wholly unreasonable gamble. He knows we can shout from the rooftops that he's a liar, but in the end, he only needs to fool some of the people for a short time. Against a backdrop of persistent fear-mongering and establishment stonewalling, he figures he will probably get away with it.
Thus far the media have been visceral in their criticism, which is welcome, but there is a while to go between now and the referendum, and all it will take is a gradual drip of pernicious articles and sneaky editorialising by the BBC and he can win the day. They won't play fair that's for sure.
While that may not be enough to win, it is ultimately our own side that will hand the game away by running a wholly inept campaign, largely presenting under-informed spokesmen, easily rebutted junk arguments and a mess of a Brexit plan if one is even presented at all.
In fact, I feel even more pessimistic in that we are working from the assumption that Mr Cameron does actually want to win his referendum. If it looks like he is making it easy for us then we can be sure he has something up his sleeve or a rabbit yet to be pulled from the hat. Cameron has seen us coming before and you could be forgiven for smelling a rat.
With such weak "reforms" on the table, it will cause overconfidence in the Leave camp, and that's probably where we get into dangerous territory. Certainly Ukip were at their most obnoxious when they thought they were on the road to a political victory. It could be that the PM is giving us enough rope to hang ourselves. I don't know. We can only speculate.
But actually, being this the case, I can't think of a better reason to leave the EU. As much as our political class deserve to be severely punished for such a grotesque slap in the face, there is also the matter of what happens if the PM does win?
We have already explored what continued EU membership looks like, and we don't like the look of it, but what of the domestic politics? You see, while the public have a short memory in terms of political events, there are landmark betrayals that are never forgotten.
It should be noted that the PM took power largely on the offer of a referendum. It was the one and only reason I bothered to vote at all. I won't be voting Tory again. We have seen what Tory euroscepticism looks like. If William Hague and Mark Pritchard can turn tail on such a spiritual conviction then the Tory party is never again to be trusted even if they do make eurosceptic noises. The persistent message from the Conservative party is that "we know the EU is bad, but we will fight to stay in at all costs".
Consequently, while Leavers do not command enough political might to ever win power via a Ukip type vehicle, we have enough clout to break the Tories, and we will likely be quite nihilistic in our quest for revenge - even if it means handing the country over to Corbyn's rabble. We hold just enough power to destabilise politics, and when the ukippers go ultra-vindictive, I will not hesitate in joining in the fun. Put simply, yes we will throw a massive tantrum if we do not get what we want.
The BBC's role in this will also be noted. We will see the mother of all rows over its future, and academia, after having sold out to the Cameron lie for the sake of its own funding will never be trusted again. I can see things turning very toxic indeed. If we can't force a second referendum then we can upset the balance of power for twenty years if needs be.
Against a backdrop of further EU integration when we see in practice just how worthless Cameron's reforms are, the protest will only get louder. In that time a lot of damage can be done through political instability. And don't think I am exaggerating either.
If asked a year ago who you thought would succeed Ed Miliband, Jeremy Corbyn would not have been in your top ten selections. You'd have chosen a nice safe list of plastic moderates. The Labour party is so hollowed out of substance and grassroots support that it didn't take very much for a determined minority to take it over in entirety. While the Tory party works on different rules, there are ways and means of wrecking it.
And if you are thinking this is a threat, it's not. It's just my best prediction. In no way do I think a referendum will settle the EU issue and the thirst for political change will not vanish just because Mr Cameron manages to manipulate a referendum win.
I also know that while I take a largely different approach to Ukip and I detest their incompetence and the racism within, I share their burning anger and contempt for the Westminster elites who so casually and cynically spit at us, manipulating the ignorance of the disengaged to advance their agenda. I won't go away and nor will they.
In this I have a more grave concern. My weapon is my blog. It doesn't have a vast readership but it does influence opinion formers and while my methods are sometimes questionable, when I have a point I am forthright about in such a way that cannot be ignored. Words are my weapon, and I know how to use them. Others who share my burning resentment though, do not necessarily have such skills and that resentment may manifest itself in more dangerous ways.
MPs of late have reported increasing online abuse and harassment, sometimes verging on assault. I fully expect that to ramp up - and if I were an MP, I would be asking for security. Think about that.
And is this because us eurosceptics are dangerous fanatics? Well we are fanatical about democracy and we will never back down on that score, but it's just a question of political reality. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. When the entire establishment conspires to crush a peaceful political insurrection and rub their noses in it so brazenly, there has to be a backlash.
In this, all those corporates lining up to say that Brexit would cause uncertainty, how do they feel about a Corbyn government? I don't know about you but I think the Norway Option is a good deal more preferable than a bunch of far left nutjobs who want to increase taxes and scrap Trident. If you think Brexit will cause uncertainty, on the domestic front, absolutely nothing is certain should we vote to remain. As much as the status quo in Europe is not an option, nor is the status quo at home.
The fact is, until this question is resolved, nothing is certain. The Tory party may think it is in a better shape than Labour, but its grassroots support is already weak, the party is vulnerable, and a sell out of this magnitude most certainly will have consequences.
We are in for a torrid time if we stay in the EU. All those smug, pious, lying europhile zealots who consider themselves to be the virtuous elites will find that they have to account for their misdeeds. When we get to the European elections, if you think the current crop of Ukip MEPs are foul, you ain't seen nothing yet.
What it comes down to is this: We have been spat on too often and for too long by an establishment that takes the people for fools and treats them with contempt. Brexit is our opportunity to sweep all that aside and have a revolution in how things are done. A genuine clean slate and a new politics. The chance to stop picking at a festering sore and a chance to reboot democracy. It is what we demand and we won't go until we get it. Stand in our way if you will, but there is a price to pay. I promise.